After multiple big-budget studio tentpoles struggled at the box office in May and June, the 2026 summer movie season closed out with a bang this July. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey broke records in its opening and will pass the $1 billion mark in a matter of days. Meanwhile, Marvel’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day wasted no time making plenty of history of its own, shattering records left and right in a gargantuan debut. It’s now on track to become just the eighth film in history to earn $2 billion, and it’s showing no signs of slowing down. The latest box office projections indicate it’s about to stake claim to yet another impressive weekend record.
According to Global Box Office on X, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is estimated to earn somewhere between $155-180 million domestically in its second weekend. This means it potentially could gross more than what Toy Story 5 made in its opening ($159.6 million). Even the low end of this projection would be more than enough to set a new record for biggest second weekend of all time, topping Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Below are the top five second weekends at the domestic box office:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens was arguably the biggest moviegoing event of the 2010s — yes, bigger than even Avengers: Endgame. Bolstered by a brilliant marketing campaign that bridged generations of fans by tapping into nostalgia while also highlighting the new characters, people flocked to theaters en masse to watch the Skywalker Saga continue. The Force Awakens posted box office numbers that seemed incomprehensible, breaking numerous records. Perhaps the most notable was all-time domestic lifetime gross. It finished its stateside run with a whopping $936.6 million. The Force Awakens is the only movie in history to gross $900+ million domestically. Endgame brought in $858.3 million.
Earlier this year, I made the case for why The Force Awakens‘ all-time record may never be broken. The circumstances that propelled the film to those massive numbers seemed irreplicable. Star Wars has been one of the biggest pop culture properties for decades, and The Force Awakens was the first new film in 10 years following Disney’s surprise acquisition of Lucasfilm. In stark contrast from where Star Wars fandom is today, fans everywhere were united in their excitement for The Force Awakens, generating theories about what the story had in store. There was nothing quite like pre-release anticipation for The Force Awakens, which is the main reason why I thought its box office record would stand the test of time. But considering how Brand New Day is performing so far, it’s time to have this conversation.
After just five days in theaters (Tuesday, August 4th was its fifth day), Spider-Man: Brand New Day grossed $449.1 million domestically. At that same mark in its run, The Force Awakens stood at $325.4 million. So, Brand New Day is outpacing The Force Awakens by a decent margin (unadjusted for inflation, of course). Once we factor in what Brand New Day made on Wednesday, August 5th and will make on Thursday, August 6th, we’re looking at a scenario where the film could be well past the $700 million mark after its second weekend (this is assuming it hits $180 million this weekend). Even the low end of the second weekend projection would have Brand New Day ready to surge past $700 million momentarily. The Force Awakens didn’t clear $700 million until its 16th day in theaters. Sunday will be Brand New Day‘s 10th.
Once Brand New Day clears $700 million, the question then becomes whether or not it can scrounge up roughly another $236.6 million for the rest of its time in theaters. That’s obviously a very large sum of money, but it seems feasible considering where we are in Brand New Day‘s run. The film is crushing everything at the box office right now, and there’s nothing on deck in August that’s a realistic challenger. Circles of cinephiles are intrigued by The End of Oak Street and The Dog Stars, but those projects don’t have the four-quadrant appeal of a critically acclaimed Spider-Man movie. Whether Brand New Day actually pulls this off could come down to how it holds in its third weekend. At some point, business will start to slow down, but if Brand New Day can beat The Force Awakens‘ $90.2 million third-weekend haul, we could be looking at a new all-time champ.
