Christopher Nolan is back after three years with another movie that everyone already knows could be the film of the year. But The Odyssey isn’t just the director’s next project — it’s his attempt to create a full prestige blockbuster, the kind of event movie that completely steals the spotlight, makes people rush to IMAX, and builds nonstop buzz all the way into next year’s Oscars. And that makes perfect sense since Nolan has never been the kind of filmmaker who plays it safe. With this new production, we’re looking at something that could break box office records. And more than that: it’s arriving with a very specific mission.
Since The Dark Knight Rises, Nolan hasn’t released a movie that crossed the $1 billion mark. And it’s not because he lacks an audience or relevance, because Oppenheimer came dangerously close and became a phenomenon in 2023. The thing is, that number still didn’t happen, and that’s why The Odyssey feels like a strategic move too: it has epic scale, a massive A-list cast, worldwide appeal, and that “you have to see this in theaters” aura that screams big-screen experience. If there’s a Nolan film that looks built to bring him back to the billion-dollar club, it’s this one. However, there’s one obstacle — and it’s a big one.
Every movie has its strengths and weaknesses, and Nolan’s films are no exception. But what’s funny here is that the things people might normally assume would be a problem, such as critics, runtime, audiences thinking the story is too pretentious, or the fact that it’s based on Homer, don’t even come close to the real issue. The biggest risk for The Odyssey is one of the most popular names in the cast: Tom Holland. The actor plays Telemachus, the son of the main character Odysseus (Matt Damon), who is trying to return home after the Trojan War while facing monsters, gods, and every kind of chaos along the way. But the catch is that, as everyone knows, Holland won’t just be starring in this film, because only two weeks after The Odyssey hits theaters, he’s back as Peter Parker in Spider-Man: Brand New Day.
At this point, it’s pretty easy to connect the dots and see what’s going on, right? But for anyone who still doesn’t get it, here’s the deal: it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the next Marvel Cinematic Universe movie doesn’t become a box office monster. The Spider-Man franchise doesn’t even need to be at its creative peak to pull insane numbers, because it simply operates on a different level of global reach. Both fans and casual audiences don’t hesitate, especially after how big Spider-Man: No Way Home blew up and the hype surrounding Avengers: Doomsday later this year. Put all of that together, and in today’s box office climate, that’s basically a straight path to $1 billion.
And the real issue is timing. On one side, you have Nolan adapting one of the most important stories in literature and turning it into an IMAX, Oscar-friendly cinematic spectacle. On the other side, you have Spider-Man, which might not even need a perfect trailer to be all anyone talks about for weeks. Because of that, the release calendar isn’t giving The Odyssey enough space to open strong and hold momentum long enough. By its second week, it’s already going head-to-head with one of the most inevitable blockbusters of the decade.
And that’s where things start to get brutal, because Nolan depends on staying power. A movie hitting $1 billion isn’t just about opening weekend, but about continuing to sell tickets after the early hype fades. And the worst part? Even though Marvel movies have clearly cooled off in recent years, there’s still a hopeful audience out there. Their releases are exactly the kind of movies that suck up all the attention from social media, entertainment outlets, and especially the impulsive moviegoer. You know that person who buys tickets because everyone else is doing it? They’re going to choose the movie that feels more mainstream and more pop-culture-driven. And in that kind of matchup, The Odyssey could start being treated like the movie you watch later, because “it’ll still be there.”
And yes, deciding to watch it later is basically a death sentence these days. People are more conditioned than ever to wait for streaming, wait for word of mouth, and wait for the right moment. Nolan usually breaks that cycle because he sells exclusivity — the idea that his films are experiences you miss out on if you don’t see them in theaters. But when the market drops another massive event movie right after, even that advantage starts to crack.
What makes this even more interesting is that, in theory, Holland should be the perfect advantage for Nolan. He pulls younger audiences, creates buzz outside the cinephile bubble, and helps sell the movie to people who normally wouldn’t care much about an adaptation of The Odyssey. But the “Holland effect” comes with a price: he’s so closely tied to Spider-Man that once the Brand New Day marketing machine really kicks into high gear closer to release, the public focus is going to shift automatically. It doesn’t matter how huge The Odyssey is, because pop culture has its own gravitational pull, and Spider-Man is basically a commercial black hole. There’s no denying it.
At the same time, The Odyssey could be huge, but it isn’t a modern movie franchise with a built-in track record. It’s a classic story, sure, but that doesn’t guarantee general audiences will rush to theaters the way they do for a superhero sequel. Nolan has an extremely loyal fanbase, but he also tends to make films that demand attention and investment. Spider-Man doesn’t need to convince anyone; it just has to exist and promise spectacle. It’s an unfair advantage, but it’s the reality of the market.
So if we’re trying to be realistic about what the current landscape looks like, which one has the better shot? Not that it’s really a competition, but when the question is whether Nolan can finally get back over the $1 billion line, the truth is that he does have a real chance — just not a big one. When The Odyssey was announced last year, tickets were sold in advance, and they sold out extremely fast. And the reaction to the first trailer was as positive as it could be. Now, as the release gets closer, a second trailer dropped, and the response was a little more mixed than expected, with criticism aimed at how modern the tone felt — especially in the dialogue and the way the movie seemed closer to a modern Hollywood blockbuster than a more traditional adaptation of Homer’s epic. But at the same time, that wasn’t enough to kill the hype.
Still, as high as Nolan’s ceiling is, Spider-Man remains a much stronger box office brand in raw numbers. Oppenheimer, as huge as it was, made $975.8 million worldwide, but Spider-Man: No Way Home finished at $1.921 billion, which is the kind of number that proves Holland has already led a truly global Marvel event. In other words, Nolan has the prestige and the ability to turn a film into a major moment, but Spider-Man has the more aggressive box office history.
And even if Brand New Day doesn’t have the same lightning-in-a-bottle appeal as its predecessor (since it benefited from Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield returning), it’s still a brand-new solo movie for a hero that has repeatedly proven it can pull massive numbers. Meanwhile, The Odyssey has to prove multiple things at once: that a classic adaptation can work for mainstream audiences, that the IMAX hook is still irresistible (because yes, there’s a portion of viewers who don’t see the point), and most importantly, that Nolan can still deliver a billion-dollar box office without leaning on an IP as instantly popular as Marvel.
In short, it’s more likely that Spider-Man: Brand New Day ends up being the bigger movie, but it’s not impossible for The Odyssey to hit $1 billion if the word of mouth is strong and international markets really show up. There’s no exact certainty here, and everything depends on a lot of moving parts. But it’s still ironic to think that Holland, in theory, is a major boost for Nolan’s new film, and in practice, he could be the exact factor that prevents Nolan from making box office history again for the first time since 2012.
The Odyssey hits theaters on July 17.
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