The latest Pokemon TCG expansion, Mega Evolution‘s Greninja-themed Chaos Rising, is almost here. This new installment in the Mega Evolution lineup adds Mega Greninja to the Pokemon TCG, along with fellow Pokemon Legends: Z-A debuts Mega Floette, Mega Dragalge, and Mega Pyroar. But of course, just because these cards are technically a part of the expansion doesn’t always mean you’re going to be lucky enough to pull them. Though it’s a fairly small set, Chaos Rising does have a few rare cards that may be tricky to pull when opening packs.
As part of prepping my review for Chaos Rising, I got to open a grand total of 55 packs. For me, this set has fewer standout full art cards than even Perfect Order, but that’s definitely in part due to my luck this time around. I did pull a decent number of rarer-tier cards, but none of them made me gasp the way some prior pulls have. But ripping that many packs does mean I get to bring you some early calculations for what pull rates look like for Chaos Rising. Keep in mind, these are projections based on my experience, but they should still give a rough estimate of how hard it’ll be to pull rare cards when Chaos Rising arrives on May 22nd.
Elite Trainer Boxes, booster displays, and booster boxes for Chaos Rising will hit shelves on May 22nd, with the pre-release events already underway as of May 9th. In total, I had a chance to open 55 packs from each of the main products in the Chaos Rising lineup. This is pretty similar to the number of packs I opened for my Ascended Heroes and Perfect Order pull rate predictions.
Overall, there were fewer big “hits” for this deck for me. In particular, ex cards, especially full art ex cards, felt much harder to come by. That was exacerbated by the fact that I pulled three of the same Mega ex, rather than getting unique pulls. It could just be my luck of the draw, but it feels like we might all be about to have too many Mega Dragalge ex cards on our hands. But if you’re here for numbers, not just vibes, I’m breaking down the totals for ex cards, new Megas, full arts, etc. to give you a sense of pull rates for each of these chase card categories.
As always, these numbers are based on my personal experience with the set, so final pull rates might shake out slightly differently. That said, 55 packs isn’t a terrible sample size, so this should give us a good rough idea of what to expect.
I pulled a total of 14 ex cards across 55 packs for Chaos Rising. That puts us at a pull rate of roughly 1 in 4, pretty on par with Perfect Order on paper. However, I did get a good bit of repeats in the mix, with 3 identical Mega Dragalge ex cards and 2 of the same Mega Greninja ex. Not bad if you’re building a deck around them, but from a collector’s standpoint, the lack of variety is a little disappointing.
If you’re hoping for a full art ex, that’s going to be as tricky as ever. This time around, I pulled 4 full art ex cards, none of them featuring the new Legends: Z-A Megas. Based on my record for snagging 4 Ultra Rare full art ex cards, your odds of a full art ex are at slightly below 1 in 14. That’s a good bit better than Perfect Order. However, all of these are Ultra Rares this time around, meaning the odds of getting those Special Illustration Rare tier ex’s are going to be steep indeed. In 55 packs, I didn’t pull a single one of the new SIR ex cards, though I did pull a full non-ex SIRs.
Now, let’s talk about the lineup of debut Mega Evolution ex cards for Chaos Rising. Like prior Mega Evolution expansions, this set will add a few of the new Legends: Z-A megas to the Pokemon TCG for the first time. Our new arrivals with this set are Mega Greninja, Mega Floette, Mega Pyroar, and Mega Dragalge. I pulled at least one card for each of these except Mega Floette. However, I didn’t get a single full art for any of them this time around, which was a bit sad to see.
Overall, I pulled 6 ex cards featuring new Legends: Z-A Megas in 55 packs. That puts the odds at just above 1 in 9. As for full art cards featuring the new Legends: Z-A Megas, your guess is as good as mine. But if my luck bears out, I think these will be the top chase cards from the set due to both their novelty and apparently low pull rates.
In terms of pulling illustration rares from Chaos Rising, I was a bit disappointed compared with prior Mega Evolution sets. That’s partly because this set has a more pared-back art style for many of its full arts, centering a large image of the Pokemon in front of a colorful background rather than depicting a more complete scene. That said, I did pull a fair number of full art cards this time around. Across 55 packs from Chaos Rising, I got the following:
As you can see, Ultra Rares are looking much more common in this set than other recent releases, with Illustration Rares roughly on par with Perfect Order. But on the flipside, the rarest tiers are in much shorter supply. In 55 packs, I didn’t get a single Special Illustration Rare or higher pull.
That said, if it’s just full art you’re after, the odds here are slightly better than in prior Mega Evolution sets. Your chances of pulling an Illustration Rare are sitting at just above 1 in 9, whereas Ultra Rare odds are even better at just below 1 in 7. But if my experience turns out to be predictive, pulling Special Illustration Rares is going to be nearly impossible this time around. Here again, we have just the one Mega Hyper Rare, this time featuring Mega Greninja ex. This, along with Special Illustration Rares, will prove quite rare indeed.
Overall, the pull rates for Chaos Rising are a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, ex rates are roughly equal to Perfect Order, which was itself a bit low compared to average. But lower rarity full art cards are pretty plentiful this time around, with the rarest card tiers proving near impossible to pull. I’ll be interested to see how everyone’s luck bears out when Chaos Rising hits shelves soon on May 22nd.
Will you be trying your luck at a few Chaos Rising pulls when the expansion arrives later this week? Leave a comment below and join the conversation now in the ComicBook Forum!
