Even though The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first new Star Wars movie in seven years, it arguably hasn’t felt like the major moviegoing event one might have expected. As a result, there have been question marks about its box office prospects for the last several weeks — especially after the film earned mixed-to-positive reviews (the Rotten Tomatoes score is 62%, one of Star Wars’ lowest). Heading into its opening weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu was projected to earn around $82 million over the four-day Memorial Day frame, a figure lower than Solo in 2018. Now that the numbers are coming in, it looks like The Mandalorian and Grogu will debut below Solo, but there’s still good news.
According to Deadline, The Mandalorian and Grogu is now estimated to earn somewhere between $96-97 million domestically over the extended holiday frame. There is a chance it could cross the $100 million mark depending on how things shake out on Sunday, but for now it’s on track for a smidge below. The worldwide debut is projected to be about $167 million. The good news is that this is higher than the tracking coming into the weekend. The bad news is that The Mandalorian and Grogu scored the lowest box office opening in Star Wars’ Disney era:
Solo: A Star Wars Story holds the rather infamous distinction of being the only Star Wars film to lose money at the box office, grossing $392.9 million worldwide against a budget that skyrocketed around $300 million due to the various behind-the-scenes issues that plagued that production. Simply put, Solo is not the company a new Star Wars movie wants to keep — from a commercial perspective, at least. However, The Mandalorian and Grogu is not a direct apples to apples comparison to Solo. There is one key difference between the two movies: the budget.
Whereas Solo unintentionally turned into one of the most expensive movies ever made, The Mandalorian and Grogu is the cheapest Star Wars film of the Disney era. Its production budget was around $165 million. So, assuming it hits the high end of the Memorial Day box office projections, The Mandalorian and Grogu will have recouped its costs in a single holiday weekend. That $165 million doesn’t include marketing and distribution expenses, but the film is well on its way to turning a profit. When you factor in any revenue generated from merchandising (Grogu is a licensing partner’s dream), The Mandalorian and Grogu should go down as a financial success.
There are also encouraging signs that The Mandalorian and Grogu could have decent legs at the box office. While critics have been divided on the Star Wars movie, moviegoers seem to be enjoying it quite a bit. The Rotten Tomatoes audience score is a very strong 89%, and The Mandalorian and Grogu earned itself an A- CinemaScore. This all suggests that it could benefit from positive word of mouth, as fans encourage others to see the film on the big screen. The Mandalorian and Grogu is also getting a boost from premium-format screenings; per Deadline, those showings made up 48% of the ticket sales, so people are excited to see the galaxy far, far away on the biggest screens possible again.
The Mandalorian and Grogu seems set up nicely to have a healthy second weekend. While there are some new releases on the way (including the A24 horror film Backrooms), there’s nothing on the scale and scope of a Star Wars movie that has four-quadrant appeal. The next high-profile genre picture to open is Masters of the Universe in early June, so The Mandalorian and Grogu has a bit of a runway to take advantage of. It’s not going to become one of the highest-grossing Star Wars films ever, but it should get the next era of Star Wars movies off on the right foot. After an extended hiatus in theaters, that’s a win Lucasfilm will appreciate.
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