Since the original film came out in 2009, Avatar has been one of the biggest movie franchises of all time. Its box office track record is unparalleled, as the first two installments easily grossed over $2 billion each. With that in mind, there was a very high bar for threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash to clear; there was a lot riding on the film’s performance, and not just Disney’s hopes of rebounding from what was a lackluster 2025 at the box office. Leading up to Fire and Ash‘s release, James Cameron made a point to say the commercial performance could dictate when (or if) Avatar 4 happens. Now that the dust has settled, a murky picture has been painted.
In a Variety report recapping Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s box office run, it’s noted that Disney “spent roughly $500 million to produce and promote” the film, meaning that $1.4 billion haul isn’t nearly as impressive given that context. Fire and Ash‘s break even point is said to be “roughly $1.5 billion,” and it looks like the film won’t hit that mark. The Mouse House is set to make money off of Fire and Ash through other avenues, but it’s still a concerning development considering the high price tag. To this point, Fire and Ash has earned nearly $900 million less than its direct predecessor, Avatar: The Way of Water.
Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 are officially slated on Disney’s upcoming release schedule, but that is always subject to change. Right now, the odds of the films being outright cancelled are probably low, but the studio and Cameron will need to work together to change the approach ahead of making the fourth installment. The biggest issue to figure out is whether or not there is a way to scale back costs so Avatar 4 isn’t nearly as expensive of a movie to make. If Fire and Ash earned another $2 billion, Disney likely would have been happy to sign another $500 million check for the next sequel, but the $900 million difference between The Way of Water and Fire and Ash makes that unsustainable from a business perspective.
The problem with trimming production costs, of course, is that would run the risk of undermining what makes Avatar, well, Avatar. Cameron has always pushed the boundaries of moviemaking technology, as his projects routinely deliver cutting-edge special effects that revolutionize the whole industry. There’s a reason why his movies aren’t cheap to make, and if Avatar 4 saw a decrease in production values, it would be very noticeable on screen. Big-screen spectacle is a staple of the Avatar franchise and the primary reason why the films stay on top of the box office charts for prolonged periods of time. It would be disappointing if the fourth film represented a step down in that department.
If Cameron finds a way to make an Avatar movie more efficiently without compromising his vision, then it should be full steam ahead on Avatar 4. In today’s post-pandemic box office climate, it’s smart to invest in properties that routinely bring in $1 billion. A smaller budget for Avatar 4 means it wouldn’t have to break box office records to turn a profit, so a $1.4 billion haul would be cause for celebration instead of concern. However, if it becomes difficult to lower costs, there could be some uncomfortable conversations. While the box office is just one way a studio can make money from a film, ticket sales are arguably the biggest and most important. Disney can’t afford to see continued diminished returns on Avatar if the budgets are $500 million.
Theoretically, it could be possible for Avatar to return to its previous form at the box office even without trimmed costs. There are a few reasons why Fire and Ash didn’t live up to the marks of its predecessors. For one, word of mouth was more mixed, as people took issue with Fire and Ash retreading storylines and plot points from the previous movie. Additionally, the shorter gap between release dates might have hurt Fire and Ash‘s commercial prospects. The Way of Water hit theaters 13 years after the first Avatar, so returning to Pandora felt fresh and exciting. The novelty wore off a bit in Fire and Ash, so maybe if Cameron takes more time off and fine-tunes the plot, Avatar 4 could be a $2 billion hit.
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