Clayface is tracking to make less money in its opening weekend than the last DC Universe movie, Supergirl. However, while many people online are seeing this news and calling it another failure for James Gunn’s DCU, those fans have no idea how the movie business works. In fact, Clayface won’t be a failure at all, and it could end up making less than Supergirl worldwide and still be considered a major financial success for Warner Bros. and a big win for Gunn’s comic book universe. When breaking down whether a movie is a success or a failure, it is important to look past the box office take and see what it actually cost to make the movie.
Clayface is expected to make over $45 million in its opening weekend worldwide on a production budget of roughly $30 million. Supergirl cost over $170 million to make and grossed $126 million worldwide. That makes Supergirl a box office flop, while Clayface will already be on its way to profit in its opening weekend alone.
‘CLAYFACE’ is tracking for a $45M+ worldwide opening against a production budget of roughly $30M pic.twitter.com/iza8LQAFJy
If Clayface makes the predicted $45 million-plus in its opening weekend, it will already be at a profit for Warner Bros. That means it is a success even without reaching the opening totals for Supergirl, which hit $62.6 million worldwide. Furthermore, even if Clayface only tops out at the $126 million that Supergirl made, that will be four times its production budget, which will make it a big success. People who consider that to be a failure don’t really understand how movie box office totals work. A good example of this math came over the summer.
Backrooms was a monster success this summer, making $400.6 million worldwide. This has been held up as one of the most profitable movies of the year because Kane Parsons made his film on a budget of $10 million. It opened with a $118 million weekend. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu opened with a $145 million holiday weekend. Anyone who calls Clayface a failure because it won’t reach Supergirl’s numbers has to call Backrooms a failure for not reaching the numbers of The Mandalorian and Grogu, another movie considered a 2026 box office flop. The Mandalorian and Grogu finished with $345.6 million worldwide, which was considered a disappointment based on its budget of $166.4 million..
However, both of those movies have to be taken differently. Backrooms made $400.6 million and was a monster success. The Mandalorian and Grogu made $345.6 million and was a disappointment. Supergirl made $126 million and was a box office bomb. If Clayface only hits $100 million, it will still be seen as a box office success. Clayface also has a good chance to have legs. It is being released right before Halloween and is being advertised as a horror movie, albeit one based on DC Comics. This has been a great year for horror, with Backrooms making $400.6 million, Obsession making $522.8 million, and Resident Evil hitting $327.6 million. Backrooms has a 74% audience score, Obsession sits at 94%, and Resident Evil at 90%. If Clayface can rank somewhere between those movies, the DCU could have the next big horror hit of 2026, and Clayface’s box office doesn’t compare in any way to Supergirl.
Are you planning on seeing Clayface in its opening weekend? Let us know your thoughts about the upcoming DCU release in the comments below.
