The Mandalorian & Grogu‘s box office isn’t what you’d expect from a new Star Wars movie, but don’t start writing eulogies for the franchise just yet. Even prior to its release, how much money the film would make was a major talking point, and understandably so. This is the saga’s return to theaters after seven years away, a period of civil streaming war(s), and so there would naturally have been a hope that it’d be a big hit and prove the franchise still has the (Jawa) Juice.
The numbers so far don’t exactly support that. The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s box office haul in its second weekend only placed it third, behind Backrooms and Obsession – two low-budget, indie horror movies. It also suffered a 69% drop, the worst-ever for a Star Wars film. Those figures have led to a lot of debate and even more hot takes, with plenty racing to proclaim the movie a disaster, that Star Wars is dead as a theatrical saga, and that the age of franchises is over. As with most things, it’s not quite that simple.
There’s no way to paint The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s box office as a resounding success, because, yes, this is Star Wars we’re talking about, and it’s reasonable to expect more than its $247 million worldwide gross through two weekends. After all, The Force Awakens is still the biggest film of all time at the domestic box office, with a $936m haul that looks like it might never be beat. The original Star Wars, meanwhile, is one of the five highest-grossing movies ever when adjusting for inflation. We’re a long way from such dizzying heights.
Except, of course, The Mandalorian and Grogu never needed to come close to what the franchise has done before. Indeed, there’s a world in which it makes exactly zero dollars at the box office, because it was instead released on Disney+ as The Mandalorian Season 4, and it would be quantified as a success. And because of that, the movie is certainly not the disaster or death knell that some gleefully want it to be, because it’s done enough at the box office, especially in its $167m global opening weekend (which, let’s remember, was solid, and the most valuable part of its run to Disney since it’ll take a larger cut of that take than in later weeks).
The movie’s performance should come as no surprise, either, and not because it’s bad. It is releasing not only three years after the show’s latest season (which was more divisive), but almost five full years after the peak of its popularity following Seasons 1 and 2. It’s also following a streaming-to-theatrical pipeline that has not proved to be a guaranteed box office winner at Disney, earning more than The Marvels ($206m) and likely ending up with less than Captain America: Brave New World ($415m, slightly boosted by Captain America being an established theatrical name, even if it is with a new version).
Are we to think that Disney was really unaware of this potential “risk”? While estimates based on its budget (around $165m before tax credits) and marketing spend (reported at around $130) have the movie needing to make upwards of $500m at the box office to end up in the black, such math is almost always overly simplistic. How much money this film makes from merchandise, VoD, streaming, theme park tie-ins, and licensing deals will probably never be revealed, but the merch alone could turn it into a winner for the Mouse House, and again, that’s from something they didn’t need to give a theatrical release.
It plays more like them dipping their toe back into the water, gearing up for a bigger year in 2027, and taking in some bonus revenue. It’s fair to question whether this was the right movie to do that with, and if it was the right time to do it, but Disney will probably end up happy enough with the movie’s performance when all is said and done. It’s unfair to consider it a true representation of where Star Wars is as a theatrical franchise, when it is so tied to a show and characters made for streaming. Thankfully, in terms of that test, there is another.
2027 is gearing up to be a big year for Star Wars, and The Mandalorian & Grogu‘s performance makes it feel more pressing. On the streaming side of things, there’ll be Ahsoka Season 2 and, presumably, Maul – Shadow Lord Season 2, but it’s in theaters where things should really heat up. First up, there’s the re-release of the theatrical cut of Star Wars (aka A New Hope), something that has long been called for.
Disney is finally giving in, and that alone should do big numbers. Revenge of the Sith‘s re-release made over $50m in 2025, which itself is a clear sign that there remains a demand for Star Wars movies in theaters. A New Hope should be even bigger than that, given the significance of its release, the much greater legacy of the movie, and tying into the 50th anniversary celebrations.
That will then lead us into Star Wars: Starfighter, which is directed by Shawn Levy, stars Ryan Gosling, and will simultaneously be something brand-new – new characters, a new place in the timeline (set five years after The Rise of Skywalker) – will having some familiar iconography, including lightsaber duels (The Mandalorian and Grogu was the first film without them, and they’ll almost certainly play well in Starfighter‘s marketing).
Levy’s track record is spotty, but he absolutely knows how to make big, crowd-pleasing blockbusters (see: Deadpool & Wolverine). Gosling’s stock has never been higher, coming off the back of Project Hail Mary. Star Wars will already be a big presence thanks to the 50th anniversary, and there’s a sense that this movie will feel (and be marketed like) a true cinematic event in a way that never materialized with The Mandalorian and Grogu.
With all of that going for it, there are no excuses with Starfighter like there are with Mando. This is a movie much more clearly designed to be a hit, fast-tracked into production because it was ready to go, and there was a lot of faith in it. If this underperforms, then yeah, it’s fair to start looking at caskets and wondering about who gets left looking after the Anzellans and Grogu in the will. Disney will once again be forced to ask massive questions about the future of Star Wars, what people want from it, and what the hell they’re going to do. But we’re not at that stage yet, and won’t be until this time next year.
Star Wars: Starfighter releases on May 27th, 2027.
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